Do you agree with market forecasts?
Strategex team has lots of experience in forecasting markets and has some good ideas for forecasting interactions between land and transport markets.
There is a wide range of approaches to forecasting housing and land markets.
• The ‘bid rent’ approach developed by Alonso It applies to a monocentric city and would imply that prices fall linearly with distance, which is not observed in Sydney Australia.
• The negative power relationship observed in Sydney could be used for forecasting impact of faster travel times to CBD. However it doesn’t recognise broader measures of accessibility and doesn’t take account of demand and supply of land and housing.
• Strategex has been working on agent-based modelling of combined housing and land markets, as described by Magliocca et al. We have converted CHALMS from a model of greenfield development in the USA to a model of brownfield development in Australia.
• Data analytics can be used on the rich databases of property information in Australia.
The above methods estimate the impact of transport on land use. Methods for estimating the impact of land use on transport are well known .
The two approaches can be put together and iterated to produce a more general equilibrium estimate of combined land use and transport.
Contact Strategex for more information.