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Many organisations are interested in forecast of take-up and usage of electric and natural gas vehicles around Australia. Under David Adams’ leadership, AECOM was one of the leading commentators on electric vehicles in Australia.
We used multiple methods for modelling rather than just assuming scenarios.
Early studies used an econometric model with coefficients estimated from the literature review. Subsequently we designed and applied a survey of vehicle owners to update coefficients for Australia.
The study for Ausgrid used simulation modelling undertaken by ISD Analytics . The client received very detailed information on both take-up and usage, namely by year, by vehicle type, and by small areas across Australia (SA2). Take-up information comprised the number of vehicles by year. Usage information comprised number of vehicles arriving or departing at half-hourly intervals during different day types, namely weekday and weekend by season, as well as distance travelled when away from home.
Clients had confidence in projections of take-up of electric and natural gas vehicles because we used quantitative methods.
Ausgrid will publish a report and analysis as part of the Smart Grid, Smart City evaluation.